Twenty-four hours from now, we should know the results of the Iowa caucuses, the first real step on the path to the Presidency. I've got to admit I'm nervous and excited in a way I've never been before in an election season.
The main reason is because I usually haven't picked a favorite this early. Oh, I might have some vague ideas, but I'm not generally "married" to any of the candidates yet. I might be disappointed if some I like drop out, but I usually wait at least until after New Hampshire to start thinking about it seriously.
Of course, this time around, time is much shorter. It's only a bit over a month until I get to cast my own primary vote; in the past the gap has been more like three to five months. Also, it's quite possible -- likely, even -- that when California goes to the polls with twenty-one other states on Tsunami Tuesday, or whatever they're calling it, the race will still be undecided -- and that California's large number of convention delegates could make the difference.
Of course, I'm mainly concerned with the Democratic nomination, but it's true of the Republican race, too.
So what's going to happen tomorrow? Polls have been all over the place. The last Des Moines Register poll had Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton by 7 points. Other polls have Clinton in the lead, or show both of them in a nearly dead heat with John Edwards.
As an Obama supporter, I may be engaging in wishful thinking here, but I think he has an excellent chance to win. The reason lies mainly in the process of the Iowa caucuses. As I understand it -- and I might easily be wrong on the details -- in each precinct, voters will line up by the candidate they support. But any candidate that gets under 15% of those present in a given precinct is eliminated for that precinct, and his supporters pick a different candidate.
That's why Obama has been asking Iowans, if they're already committed so supporting a different candidate, to at least consider him for their second choice. And it may be working: today, Dennis Kucinich urged his supporters to make Obama their second choice in any precinct where he doesn't qualify. Though Kucinich is only polling around 1% in Iowa, the supporters he does have are very solid, and, I think, more likely to turn up than those of most other candidates.
That, I think, is the handicap for Clinton. While she certainly has many solid supporters, I think many more of hers are a bit mushier -- backing her mainly on name recognition and the fact that her nomination once seemed nearly-inevitable. The people for other candidates, on the other hand, tend to be fairly unified in their not wanting Hillary Clinton; very few people would name her as their second choice. And with very cold weather predicted in Iowa tomorrow, I think conditions favor those candidates whose support is particularly enthusiastic -- and, I believe, that means Obama.
My over-all prediction for the Democratic side is this: by next week, after New Hampshire, the second-rank candidates (Biden, Dodd, and Richardson) will be more-or-less finished. Kucinich, and perhaps Gravel, will stay in the race to keep their voices in the mix, but neither seriously expects to win. That leaves the big three: Clinton, Edwards, and Obama.
If Obama makes a strong showing in both races -- and a poll today had him leading in New Hampshire; if he wins Iowa, that should add a bit of momentum -- then I think he's in a very strong position. He's got the funding, and the fund-raising potential, to compete on February 5th. Edwards, on the other hand, is in a much weaker financial position; he needs a very strong showing to send some of the money his way. He may hold on till South Carolina, but if he doesn't have a victory by then, he may be forced to pack it in.
And that would set up a race between Clinton and Obama -- or, as I tend to think of it, Clinton vs. Not-Clinton. And I think, under current conditions, that leads to an Obama win.
Of course, I could be wrong. And if Edwards manages to stay in the race, he could split the Not-Clinton vote with Obama, leading to Clinton scoring enough big wins on February 5th to give her, if not a lock on the nomination, by far the strongest position. (And of course, it's also possible I'm being overly optimistic, and that Obama will do poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire, which might lead him to withdraw -- and unless he firmly endorses Clinton at that point, and perhaps even if he does, a lot of his support will flow to Edwards.)
In a way, I'm sorry, because I think Hillary Clinton could make a good president. I might even be overly worried about her "negatives" -- that she could manage to subdue some of the hostility towards her, so her presidency isn't a solid four or eight years of partisan acrimony. Also, of course, Obama is young enough that if he's edged out this time, he's still a decent prospect in 2012 or 2016; whereas for Clinton, it's probably now or never.
But, well, I still like Obama better, and I really want to see him win.
Anyhow, tomorrow, we will know at least a little more -- and a week later, more still.
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