(1) Because he is an inspiring leader who, I believe, has the best chance of any of the current candidates of uniting the country, reducing needless partisanship, finding solutions that work, compromising where necessary, standing on principle where it’s vital, and moving us forward.
(2) Because I believe electing Hillary Clinton would take us back to the harsh anti-Clinton partisanship of the 1990’s, instead of moving us forward.
(3) Because I believe that, unfortunately, no matter how good any health care reform proposed by Hillary Clinton might be, the public has already made up its mind that it doesn’t want “Hillarycare.” Perhaps it’s impossible to pass universal health care in the US, but Obama has a better chance.
(4) Because Republicans, on the whole, are not particularly enthusiastic about their choices for this election. Their turnout in November could be low, giving the Democrats an excellent chance to win. However, there is so much anti-Clinton sentiment that I think hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, will go to the polls to vote against Hillary no matter who her opponent is.
(5) In the primaries held thus far, Clinton has tended to do better in urban areas, while Obama has done better in rural areas. Clinton’s strength, therefore, lies mainly in places where the Democrats will win no matter what; Obama, on the other hand, can compete for the swing states that we need. (This is particularly important if, as the current trends suggest, the Republican nominee is John McCain, who has a wide appeal to independents.)
(6) Obama knew, even in 2002, that invading Iraq was a mistake – even though he believed, as most of us did at the time, that Saddam did have WMD’s under development – and he took the political risk of saying so. We need someone with that kind of judgment and courage.
(7) Obama could transform our relations with countries around the world, and particularly in the Middle East, by showing them that America does not just pay lip service to diversity and equality. His ancestry and upbringing give him a perspective and insight on the world that is greatly needed in this age.
(8) Some of you seem to give value to my political opinions, even though you may not always agree with them. After reading The Audacity of Hope, I was excited to discover that Obama, in many ways, thinks like I do: he sees both sides of issues (even where his own opinion is firmly on one side) and does not demonize his opponents, or believe those who disagree with him are somehow immoral or unpatriotic. He can work with those on the other side to find policies that everyone can accept.
(9) He inspires young people particularly and can, I believe, involve them in politics, and can help heal our racial, economic, and religious divides. The fact that he’s raised so much money from small donors (including myself) indicates that when he issues a call to action, people will respond.
(10) Because he’s awesome!
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
And so, it begins...
Twenty-four hours from now, we should know the results of the Iowa caucuses, the first real step on the path to the Presidency. I've got to admit I'm nervous and excited in a way I've never been before in an election season.
The main reason is because I usually haven't picked a favorite this early. Oh, I might have some vague ideas, but I'm not generally "married" to any of the candidates yet. I might be disappointed if some I like drop out, but I usually wait at least until after New Hampshire to start thinking about it seriously.
Of course, this time around, time is much shorter. It's only a bit over a month until I get to cast my own primary vote; in the past the gap has been more like three to five months. Also, it's quite possible -- likely, even -- that when California goes to the polls with twenty-one other states on Tsunami Tuesday, or whatever they're calling it, the race will still be undecided -- and that California's large number of convention delegates could make the difference.
Of course, I'm mainly concerned with the Democratic nomination, but it's true of the Republican race, too.
So what's going to happen tomorrow? Polls have been all over the place. The last Des Moines Register poll had Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton by 7 points. Other polls have Clinton in the lead, or show both of them in a nearly dead heat with John Edwards.
As an Obama supporter, I may be engaging in wishful thinking here, but I think he has an excellent chance to win. The reason lies mainly in the process of the Iowa caucuses. As I understand it -- and I might easily be wrong on the details -- in each precinct, voters will line up by the candidate they support. But any candidate that gets under 15% of those present in a given precinct is eliminated for that precinct, and his supporters pick a different candidate.
That's why Obama has been asking Iowans, if they're already committed so supporting a different candidate, to at least consider him for their second choice. And it may be working: today, Dennis Kucinich urged his supporters to make Obama their second choice in any precinct where he doesn't qualify. Though Kucinich is only polling around 1% in Iowa, the supporters he does have are very solid, and, I think, more likely to turn up than those of most other candidates.
That, I think, is the handicap for Clinton. While she certainly has many solid supporters, I think many more of hers are a bit mushier -- backing her mainly on name recognition and the fact that her nomination once seemed nearly-inevitable. The people for other candidates, on the other hand, tend to be fairly unified in their not wanting Hillary Clinton; very few people would name her as their second choice. And with very cold weather predicted in Iowa tomorrow, I think conditions favor those candidates whose support is particularly enthusiastic -- and, I believe, that means Obama.
My over-all prediction for the Democratic side is this: by next week, after New Hampshire, the second-rank candidates (Biden, Dodd, and Richardson) will be more-or-less finished. Kucinich, and perhaps Gravel, will stay in the race to keep their voices in the mix, but neither seriously expects to win. That leaves the big three: Clinton, Edwards, and Obama.
If Obama makes a strong showing in both races -- and a poll today had him leading in New Hampshire; if he wins Iowa, that should add a bit of momentum -- then I think he's in a very strong position. He's got the funding, and the fund-raising potential, to compete on February 5th. Edwards, on the other hand, is in a much weaker financial position; he needs a very strong showing to send some of the money his way. He may hold on till South Carolina, but if he doesn't have a victory by then, he may be forced to pack it in.
And that would set up a race between Clinton and Obama -- or, as I tend to think of it, Clinton vs. Not-Clinton. And I think, under current conditions, that leads to an Obama win.
Of course, I could be wrong. And if Edwards manages to stay in the race, he could split the Not-Clinton vote with Obama, leading to Clinton scoring enough big wins on February 5th to give her, if not a lock on the nomination, by far the strongest position. (And of course, it's also possible I'm being overly optimistic, and that Obama will do poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire, which might lead him to withdraw -- and unless he firmly endorses Clinton at that point, and perhaps even if he does, a lot of his support will flow to Edwards.)
In a way, I'm sorry, because I think Hillary Clinton could make a good president. I might even be overly worried about her "negatives" -- that she could manage to subdue some of the hostility towards her, so her presidency isn't a solid four or eight years of partisan acrimony. Also, of course, Obama is young enough that if he's edged out this time, he's still a decent prospect in 2012 or 2016; whereas for Clinton, it's probably now or never.
But, well, I still like Obama better, and I really want to see him win.
Anyhow, tomorrow, we will know at least a little more -- and a week later, more still.
The main reason is because I usually haven't picked a favorite this early. Oh, I might have some vague ideas, but I'm not generally "married" to any of the candidates yet. I might be disappointed if some I like drop out, but I usually wait at least until after New Hampshire to start thinking about it seriously.
Of course, this time around, time is much shorter. It's only a bit over a month until I get to cast my own primary vote; in the past the gap has been more like three to five months. Also, it's quite possible -- likely, even -- that when California goes to the polls with twenty-one other states on Tsunami Tuesday, or whatever they're calling it, the race will still be undecided -- and that California's large number of convention delegates could make the difference.
Of course, I'm mainly concerned with the Democratic nomination, but it's true of the Republican race, too.
So what's going to happen tomorrow? Polls have been all over the place. The last Des Moines Register poll had Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton by 7 points. Other polls have Clinton in the lead, or show both of them in a nearly dead heat with John Edwards.
As an Obama supporter, I may be engaging in wishful thinking here, but I think he has an excellent chance to win. The reason lies mainly in the process of the Iowa caucuses. As I understand it -- and I might easily be wrong on the details -- in each precinct, voters will line up by the candidate they support. But any candidate that gets under 15% of those present in a given precinct is eliminated for that precinct, and his supporters pick a different candidate.
That's why Obama has been asking Iowans, if they're already committed so supporting a different candidate, to at least consider him for their second choice. And it may be working: today, Dennis Kucinich urged his supporters to make Obama their second choice in any precinct where he doesn't qualify. Though Kucinich is only polling around 1% in Iowa, the supporters he does have are very solid, and, I think, more likely to turn up than those of most other candidates.
That, I think, is the handicap for Clinton. While she certainly has many solid supporters, I think many more of hers are a bit mushier -- backing her mainly on name recognition and the fact that her nomination once seemed nearly-inevitable. The people for other candidates, on the other hand, tend to be fairly unified in their not wanting Hillary Clinton; very few people would name her as their second choice. And with very cold weather predicted in Iowa tomorrow, I think conditions favor those candidates whose support is particularly enthusiastic -- and, I believe, that means Obama.
My over-all prediction for the Democratic side is this: by next week, after New Hampshire, the second-rank candidates (Biden, Dodd, and Richardson) will be more-or-less finished. Kucinich, and perhaps Gravel, will stay in the race to keep their voices in the mix, but neither seriously expects to win. That leaves the big three: Clinton, Edwards, and Obama.
If Obama makes a strong showing in both races -- and a poll today had him leading in New Hampshire; if he wins Iowa, that should add a bit of momentum -- then I think he's in a very strong position. He's got the funding, and the fund-raising potential, to compete on February 5th. Edwards, on the other hand, is in a much weaker financial position; he needs a very strong showing to send some of the money his way. He may hold on till South Carolina, but if he doesn't have a victory by then, he may be forced to pack it in.
And that would set up a race between Clinton and Obama -- or, as I tend to think of it, Clinton vs. Not-Clinton. And I think, under current conditions, that leads to an Obama win.
Of course, I could be wrong. And if Edwards manages to stay in the race, he could split the Not-Clinton vote with Obama, leading to Clinton scoring enough big wins on February 5th to give her, if not a lock on the nomination, by far the strongest position. (And of course, it's also possible I'm being overly optimistic, and that Obama will do poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire, which might lead him to withdraw -- and unless he firmly endorses Clinton at that point, and perhaps even if he does, a lot of his support will flow to Edwards.)
In a way, I'm sorry, because I think Hillary Clinton could make a good president. I might even be overly worried about her "negatives" -- that she could manage to subdue some of the hostility towards her, so her presidency isn't a solid four or eight years of partisan acrimony. Also, of course, Obama is young enough that if he's edged out this time, he's still a decent prospect in 2012 or 2016; whereas for Clinton, it's probably now or never.
But, well, I still like Obama better, and I really want to see him win.
Anyhow, tomorrow, we will know at least a little more -- and a week later, more still.